Preliminary Preseason Forecast for Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon in 2027 (UW-FRI)

This brief report provides a preliminary forecast for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon abundance for 2027, based upon data available at the time of the last Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) daily inseason release (August 2026). As this preliminary forecast is made prior to the release of finalized data for the 2026 run, this should be considered as advisory rather than a formal forecast given its lower accuracy and aggregated summary across stocks.

Our 2027 preliminary Bristol Bay run size forecast is 44.2 million sockeye salmon, with a projected harvest of 28.6 million fish (158 million pounds). The formal UW-FRI Preseason Forecast will be released on the standard schedule in November 2026, which will include 2027 abundance estimates by age class for all nine rivers in Bristol Bay and the anticipated 2027 harvest in numbers and pounds.