Using historical run timing data, ADFG recently prepared a document projecting daily harvests for the 2009 Bristol Bay season. The document compares projected daily harvests with daily processing capacity, as estimated in the 2009 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Processing Capacity Survey. The result, a first-ever probability estimate of fishing limits being imposed during the season, may increase understanding of "foregone harvest" among fishermen, processors and managers.

Foregone harvest is a term for those fish -- beyond what is needed to assure escapement -- that go un-harvested due to management decisions or capacity limits. ADFG estimates that roughly 75% of foregone harvest in Bristol Bay stems from management decisions such as those related to protecting Kvichak stocks. Periodic capacity limits are responsible for the other 25% of foregone harvest.

This is the first time ADFG has examined the probability of daily catches exceeding daily processing capacity in Bristol Bay.

In March, the BB-RSDA asked the Foregone Harvest Committee of the Bristol Bay Native Association to request the Governor to have ADFG compare this season's anticipated capacity with average run timing, in order to help define the risk of fishermen being placed on limits in 2009.

You may download the ADFG analysis below, as well as the capacity survey that predated it.